2010 has been an extraordinary year for “Fine wines”, thanks to several events that led to a major increase in demand and value in the market of the most illustrious wines in the world.
First, 2010 definitely consecrated the Far East as the new favorite destination for fine wines, particularly Bordeaux wine. The new rich in China have been climbing up the ranks as top buyers of luxury goods, including also the most prestigious brands of wines. Drinking fine wines is now considered the symbol of newly achieved social status.
Naturally, the focus is on the Bordeaux Premier Crus, which include some of the most prestigious wines in the world and even novice palates easily appreciate their characteristics. There was a slight decrease in demand in the first semester of 2008 that coincided with the international economic crisis. In the last two years, however, the attention and strong demand from Asiatic buyers made the demand for the Bordeaux Fine Wines soar.
One wine speaks for all and is the real star of the market, first among the five Premier Cru Classé of Medoc: the legendary Château Lafite Rothschild. From the end of 2009 and for all 2010, the demand for Lafite on the Chinese market has been so high that it is almost impossible to find. The increase in value therefore has gone up 90% in two years and 1000% from 2000 to today.
Lafite is not the only object of desire on the Asian markets, all the other great French wines have benefited from a substantial increase in demand, too. As a result, the Live-ex index, the international marketplace of Fine Wines, will close the year with a plus 35%.
The great expectations for the 2009 harvest, considered by many one of the best vintages in living memory, provided an added value to the sector. The en primeur sale in summer 2010 was a huge success and reached unimaginable prices, on the average double the sale receipts of the last extraordinary vintage in 2005.
The result of the “primeur 2009” campaign, however, determined an uncontrolled price increase on “minor” wines influenced by the more sought after wines. The quality investments will be demonstrated in the next few years. The auction houses specializing in Fine Wines, Christie’s and Sotheby’s in the lead that registered record revenues in 2010, particularly in Hong Kong, London, New York and Geneva, confirm this situation.
2011 is looking promising for Fine Wines, but in a world that can change rapidly, caution is key.
Among the most important events in 2011, Christie’s will conduct four auctions in London, New York and Paris between March and April. Sotheby’s instead, will conduct an auction in London, in February, of one of the most prestigious private collections in the world of Château Lafite Rothschild.
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Focus - What the “Fine Wine” market can expect in 2011
1) Mouton Rothschild, Latour, Margaux, Haut Brion, Cheval Blanc and Ausone will see a steady increase in price, driven by the Asian market demand. Mouton, in particular, will become the market leader in 2011 and 2012.
2) Lafite prices will stabilize and the current “stellar” assessment will be resized, but without a drastic drop in price.
3) The top Bordeaux vintage 2000 wines will emerge in all their excellence and will be actively sought after, making prices increase.
4) Château d’Yquem will burst on the Asian market with significant gains on the current estimates, especially the 2007 vintage.
5) The so-called “second vin” of the Bordeaux Premier Cru will see a definite increase in demand and will reach unimaginable prices through 2009.
6) The Asian market’s pressing demand of great Burgundy wines and Champagnes will not be felt until mid 2012, so buying these wines in 2011 could be a great bargain.
7) The prices of the Bordeaux Primeur 2010 in relation to the Premier Cru Classé will be so much higher that buyers on the historic European and American markets will not be motivated to purchase them. In 2013 most of the cases of these wines will be in Southeast Asia.
8) Many Bordeaux companies that are not in the so-called ”first level” will be in crisis due to the excessive increase in price of their wines, due to the wave of the 2009-2010 primeur campaign and the world market frenzy. The négociants’ full warehouses could result in putting some wines on sale, which could negatively impact the value of many wines.
9) The fine Italian wines will begin to make headway among wine lovers and investors, thanks to Italian cuisine becoming more and more appreciated the world over. Sassicaia wine will be the flagship, for which I predict an optimum financial performance next year.
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