First quarter 2021 of global wine trade shows first signs of recovery

In the first quarter of 2021, the value of the global wine trade continues to lose ground, but at a decidedly less worrying pace than that seen in 2020, when the balance was eventually a total loss of 2 billion euros along the value chain (-6.7%), plummeting from 31.965 billion euros in 2019 to 29.814 billion euros.
After the January slump, however, in March 2021 the global wine market is back on the rise, both in value, with the potential market worth 29.943 billion euros, and in volume, where however the trend, on the wave of premiumization, has been declining for a few years already, at 103.7 million hectoliters of total addressable market, on the same levels as at the end of 2020. As recounted in the analysis of the Oemv - Observatorio Español del Mercado del Vino, the result of these two trends is that to suffer, in the end, is above all the average price, which after reaching 3.04 euros per liter in December 2019, today has fallen to 2.89 euros, practically on 2018 levels.
Not all types of wine, as we have pointed out on other occasions, paid the same bill for the collapse of 2020: if sparkling wines lost 15.3% in value, 5.1% in volume and 10.8% in terms of average price, still bottled wine limited its losses to -5.7% in value, -1.5% in volume and -4.2% in average price, while bag-in-box even grew: +7.7% in value and +11.7% in volume, losing -3.6% in average price. Even analyzing the performance of individual exporting countries, important differences emerge: if France lost more than 10% in value, but just over half in volume, Italy managed to limit its losses and secure the same average price as 2019, while Spain, a unique case, even saw a slight increase in the average price of wine exported around the world. Australia, United States and South Africa saw an increase in volumes, but a similar decrease in values, whereas New Zealand and Portugal saw growth on both fronts. Argentina is a different story: the growth of sales, in volume, in 2020, was slightly lower than 30%, which, against a slight decrease in values, translates into a drop of more than 25% of the average price.
Another interesting aspect - limited to bottled wine - is the ability of the various producing countries to limit damages during the most difficult period of the pandemic (March-June 2020), combined with the extent of recovery in the period July-December 2020. Italy limited losses to -3.4%, posting +2.4% growth in the second half of the year. France, on the other hand, which lost 13.3% in the lockdown months, recovered just 0.1%. Spain experienced a trend very similar to that of Italy: -2.8% in the months of the lockdown, +1.3% in the second half of 2020. Chile’s gap was wider (-8.4% and +3.5%), Australia’s was less so, but still in negative territory (-8.8% and -4.5%), South Africa’s was gigantic (-30.4%, due to the total ban on alcohol sales during the lockdown, and +12.2%), while Portugal continued to grow, but at different speeds: +3.4% in the lockdown months, +13.2% in the second half of 2020.

Obviously, a mirror trend is also seen in the main outlet markets of the world wine trade. US imports, in 2020, lost more than 10% (-23.5% in the lockdown months and -15.4% in the second half of 2020). Also in negative territory was Great Britain, which lost 15.4% in the March-June period, but only 0.1% in the following six months. Germany, after the 8.5% drop in the months of the lockdown, grew by just 0.1% in the second half of 2020, thus closing in negative territory. Canada fared better, which lost just 1.1% in the lockdown period and a little more in the following period, 2.9%. China collapsed, which, after the -36.2% of wine imports in March-June, lost a further 22.1% in the following six months. In the end, in positive territory in both phases of 2020 there are only Netherlands (+4.6% and +14%) and Sweden (+6.6% and +7).