Allegrini 2024

Italian wine in the world in 2022, according to the numbers of Nomisma Wine Monitor

The market experiences volume declines while setting new records in values. Out-of-home erodes shares in large-scale distribution

In 2022, the global wine market saw a generalized drop in imports in terms of volume, which was offset by an increase in values, with some exceptions. According to the numbers (presented today in Bologna by Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor, from “Forum Wine Monitor” n. 9), the USA, between January and November 2022, marks a growth in wine imports, in value, by 18.1%, Great Britain by +28.4%, Canada by +16.2%, Japan by +22.5%, South Korea by 19.2%, while Germany, somewhat surprisingly, marks a drop of 4.4%, and also China, which continues the negative trend that began in 2018, well before the Covid pandemic spread through the world and the Russian invasion of Ukraine upset it the political and economic balance, with an inflationary spiral that is already making itself felt in the sector.
Meanwhile, Italy ended 2022 with a new export record of 8 billion euros, and it confirmed that it performed at least as well as the overall figure on the major markets, if not better. It increased by 16.2% in the USA, 32.7% in the UK, 21.7% in Canada, 25.3% in Japan, and 9.6% in South Korea. Germany and China fared slightly worse than the average, with declines of -11.9% and -7.2%, respectively. The category of still and sparkling wines - both Italian and from the rest of the world - exactly follows the trend just described, while sparkling wines do much better: made in Italy sparkling mark +25.4% in the USA, +78. 9% in the UK, +25.4% in Japan, +0.5% in Germany, +19.6% in Switzerland, +31.3% in Canada, and +37.3% in South Korea.
In terms of growth, the “magnificent seven” world wine markets, in 2022, were, on the other hand, Qatar, which grew by +209% thanks to the driving force of the Football World Cup - with Australia marking +238%, France +215% and Italy +163% - Thailand (+146%), Vietnam (+120%), India (+113%), Angola (+112%), Malaysia (+99%) and the Philippines (+92%): still niches, all of which are in any case worth more than 10 million euros, and which forecast the growth trends of the world economy for 2023, with the Middle East, the Far East and Africa on the shields.

There is no doubt that the conflict is having an impact on wine imports into Russia and Ukraine, as well as the management of Covid in China. With a 30% market share, Italy was the top supplier in both the Russian and Ukrainian markets, which were each worth nearly 1 billion euros and 130 million euros, respectively. Russia continued to import, especially from Spain and Georgia, with France and Italy (-2.8%) which, however, was at a loss. In terms of types, in Russia Prosecco grows by +9.1%, while Asti Spumante loses 12.7%, whites from Veneto -11.8%, reds from Tuscany -38.1%, the reds from Veneto gain 30.9%, the whites from Sicily +7.7% (and even grow by +39.6% in Ukraine), and the reds from Sicily lose -23.1%, due to a drop total of PDO wines by -5.1%, obviously net of triangulations, because Russia is historically a market that imports wine from many other secondary markets, an even more important aspect after that it was isolated from most Western countries.
Another major suffer is China, which has seen a drop in imports since 2018, falling from 2.2 billion euros in 2017 to 1.24 billion euros in 2022, a drop of nearly half. The Asian giant has had and continues to have growth issues, which have been exacerbated by zero tolerance policies on Covid and a drop in imports (-2.4% in value) has affected almost everyone,
primarily Australia of course (affected by the duties above 100% wanted in 2020 by Beijing), but also France (-1.2% in value in 202), Italy (-7.2%) and Spain (-16.5%), with the USA (+43.2%) and Chile (+12.2%) in clear contrast.
On a global scale, the United States and Chile perform best in terms of percentage growth, with shipments increasing by +14.2% and +12.8%, respectively. France (+12.5%) is also on the podium, followed by Italy (+12%), New Zealand (+8%), Spain (+5.6%), and Australia (+4.1 %). As mentioned, Italy has thus reached 8 billion euros in wine exports, but the gap with France, at 12.5 billion euros, widens, while the gap with Spain, at billions of euros, it’s getting bigger and bigger. Followed by Chile (1.9 billion euros), the USA (1.4 billion euros), Australia (1.4 billion euros), and New Zealand (1.3 billion euros). As always, the gap with France is reflected in the average price, with a differential in favor of French wines that have remained largely unchanged since 2013: back then it was +39.3%, and today it’s +40.3%. The gap between Italian wines and Spanish wines (from +43.5% to +59.6%) and Chilean wines (from +28.8% to +38.9%) increases in favor of Italian wines.
According to an analysis of the various distribution channels, large-scale distribution on the domestic market is decreasing, but values and volumes are still higher than in 2019: still and sparkling wines, in 2022, reached 2.2 billion euros, sparkling wines 707 million euros. The decrease, compared to 2021, is -1.8%, with still and sparkling wines marking -2.2%, PDO wines -3.7%, PGI wines -1.1%, sparkling wines - 0.4%, sweet Charmats -3.3%, and classic method -4.9%, while dry Charmats grow (+4.2%), not only thanks to Prosecco, but also thanks to generic sparkling wines sold at discount stores at a low cost. Remaining in large-scale distribution, a negative sign also for e-commerce (-23.8% for still and sparkling wines and -1.2% for sparkling wines) and organic wines (-4.7% for still and sparkling wines and +15.2% for sparkling wines).
On the other hand, the Horeca channel has been definitively restarted, with a significant increase in turnover from January to September 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, as one might expect. Germany records +60.6%, France +57.9%, the Netherlands +50.9%, Italy +46.6%, and Spain +39%. Data also went up thanks to the return of tourists: Italy counted 89.1 million between January and September 2022 (Eurostat data), between Italians and foreigners. The total of 108 million in 2019 is still a long way off, as are the 136.2 million in France, 120.3 million in Germany, and 105.6 million in Spain.
Looking ahead to 2023, a rather slow growth in GDP is expected in the historical markets of Italian wine; Southeast Asia is doing better, where Italian wine is still not widely present. Estimates for the Italian economy show a significant floating (+0.3% - +0.4%) but no recession. The cost of energy, particularly gas, will be a major factor because inflation is inextricably linked to the cost of energy, as is consumer purchasing power, which obviously depends on the stability of the wine market. In fact, the shopping cart is already paying the consequences of the price increase, with Italians who, to counter the high cost of living, decide to make fewer purchases of non-essential products (46%), reduce purchases in terms of value without renouncing to quality (22%), reduce purchases in quantity (9%), reduce purchases both in terms of value and quantity (7%), leave the shopping cart unchanged (16%). Wine ranks sixth place among “cut risk” products, behind snacks, carbonated drinks, red meats, fish, and cured meats.

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