THE POTENTIAL OF CHINA, THE STABILITY OF THE USA AND THE UNSTOPPABLE FALL IN CONSUMPTION IN EUROPE, KEEP AN EYE ON JAPAN AND CANADA WHILE AFRICA IS OPENING ITS DOORS TO WINE. THIS IS THE 2020 WINE WORLD REPORT BY VINEXPO AND IWSR

The two most important countries in the World Wine Trade are the United States and China, even though their profiles are quite different profiles. On the other side of the Atlantic, in 2016, the turnover of the wine industry was 34.5 billion euros, while China stayed at 15.5 billion dollars, but in the future the two powers will come closer together. According to forecasts of the Vinexpo and IWSR - International wine & Spirits Research (www.vinexpo.com) study that the CEO of the French Fair, Guillaume Déglise, presented in Hong Kong, by 2020 in US wine will reach 38.6 billion dollars, while in China will reach 21.7 billion dollars, due to an acceleration of 39.8%, which will make China the second largest consumer globally, beating out Britain.
The most interesting fact, from the perspective of a producing country, is that in the long term, Beijing will represent 72% of global growth in consumption, making it a true reference point.
These are, as Guillaume pointed out, “two very different growth profiles. We expect that China will jump from 632.4 million bottles now to 1.128 billion bottles in 2020, a 79% boom, based primarily on imports, because China is not a big producer”. The role of the United States is totally different, as it is “an established producer, but cannot stand up to such a huge consumer market; we expect a further growth of 45.6 million bottles by 2020”.
China and the US are the markets to be safeguarded, but there are at least two others to keep an eye on, Japan and Canada, which the Vinexpo and IWSR study, defined "exciting". Projections for Russia are still characterized by uncertainty, and it is a situation that is unlikely to change in the short term. Further, one should not underestimate the potential of Africa, as countries like Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Namibia have now opened their doors to wine and could prove important markets for volume.
In the meantime, in Europe consumption will continue down its unstoppable descent. The Old World, in general, is still the largest consumer of wine, and represents 60% of the market, but by 2020 they will lose another 406 million bottles.
“The reasons consumption is declining in Europe”, explained Déglise, “are due to an evident improvement of what people are drinking. The new generations are growing up with stricter laws and prevention campaigns, and have gotten the most out of the premiumization trend, and one must also not underestimate the competition from beer and cider”. In absolute terms, per capita consumption in Europe is by far the highest, while by 2020 China will reach just 1.53 liters consumed per capita (compared to 43,63 liters in France), which is just 38 million people in a total population of 1.4 billion people.
In the Land of the Dragon, domestic wines still take the lion's share, and account for 60% of consumption, a share set to fall to 50% in 2020, because of the growth of sparkling wines - the forecast is + 43% for a total consumption of 26.28 million bottles. Finally, there is the small but strategic Hong Kong, where per capita consumption will reach 6 liters in 2020, for a 5.4% decrease on the super premium segment, due to the strict Chinese anti-corruption unit, for a total volume of 50.76 million bottles.