Italy is doing bad, some better but not exceptional signs from abroad. The wine market 2024

Italy is doing bad, some better, but not exceptional, signs from abroad. This is the extreme summary of the wine market in the first 6 months of 2024, confirmed, among many analyses also by Nomisma’s Wine Monitor report, in collaboration with NIQ-NielsenIQ. According to which sales in the Italian retail channel record a decline in volume of almost 3% over the same period 2023 (3.7 million hectoliters) against a growth of just under 1% in value (1.4 billion euros). Overall, there is evidence of a reduction in quantities sold common to all distribution formats, but not to the different categories. Specifically, for still and sparkling wines the decline in volumes is greater in e-commerce, while it is less pronounced in the discount segment. In contrast, for sparkling wines the change is positive in all segments (higher in discount stores) except in the Cash & Carry segment. “These numbers highlight once again how the factor that is most affecting wine sales in Italy is the continuing economic uncertainty that is reflected in consumers’ ability to spend. An uncertainty that has also affected out-of-home consumption, particularly at restaurants”, says Denis Pantini, Agrifood and Wine Monitor Manager at Nomisma. In this regard, it is sufficient to mention that after a growth in food consumption (food & beverage) in the Horeca channel of +7% in the first quarter of this year (over the same period in 2023), the second quarter instead saw a slowdown, bringing the change to +4.5%. This dynamic was also undoubtedly affected by the lower influx of tourists, with growth in arrivals from abroad failing to fully offset the decline in Italian tourists.
On foreign markets, however, there are some signs of recovery. While it is true that at the halfway mark of the first half of 2024, cumulative wine imports in the main 12 global markets, representing more than 60% of world wine purchases by value, still remain in negative territory (-4%), an improvement over the cumulative figure for the first quarter (when the decline was -9%) should be noted. Moreover, wine imports from Italy perform better than the general trend. In particular, over the same six months of 2023, purchases of Italian wines by value are positive in the United States (+5.7%), the United Kingdom (+4.7%), Canada (+1.3%) and Brazil, while they suffer in Germany (-9%) and Asian countries (Japan, China and South Korea).
Regarding the individual categories, for Italian still and sparkling wines there is an “improvement” compared to the first quarter of this year. The decline in purchases in the top world markets is reduced in intensity, reaching -2% in value, with counter-trend (and therefore positive) performances in the US, Uk, Canada and Brazil. On the first half of 2023, imports of Italian sparkling wines show +4.5% in value, with growing performance in the US, Uk, France, Canada, Australia and Brazil. In contrast, reductions in purchases of Italian sparkling wines continue in Germany, Switzerland and Japan. Among the main Italian appellation wines, Prosecco exports continue to grow (+12% in value in the cumulative first 5 months of this year) and Tuscany's PDO reds recover (+6%) after last year’s drop, while Piedmont’s still suffer (-2%).
Finally, the Nomisma report also offers a look at competitors. The “big sick”, at this historical moment, seems to be French wine, which more than others suffers the effects of this global economic downturn: -10% the value of exports from France in the first half of 2024, with a drop that touches -17% in the case of Champagne and -16% Bordeaux reds, but does not even spare those from Burgundy (-7%). Also in the negative is New Zealand’s export (-3%), while Spain, Chile and the United States travel in positive territory. Australia is growing strongly (+28%), recovering after a slump in wine exports last year. “The recovery scored by Australian wines can be explained entirely by the end of the super-duties that the Beijing government has lifted since March this year: in fact, net of the return to the Chinese market, Australia’s exports to the rest of the world record a further cumulative decline of 11 percent in the first half of 2024”, Pantini concludes.