Fine wines, still uncertain framework but improving perspectives for the second half of 2026

Among the many challenges the wine industry is facing today, even small pieces of positive news should not be underestimated, especially when they concern the relatively narrow niche of the world’s great wines. They are encouraging signals which offer a measure of confidence in what remains a highly uncertain future. And if the WineNews analysis of the Liv-Ex indexes for the first half of 2026 reveals an overall picture of growth compared with the recent past, driven above all by the Italy 100 index, the outlook for the second half of the year also appears to be improving slightly, thanks to early signs of renewed interest from American consumers. This is according to Liv-Ex itself, the leading platform for the secondary market in fine wines. “The outlook appears better than it did 12 months ago. For certain brands and vintages, demand at current price levels is now sufficient to support valuations; several wines are simultaneously experiencing price increases and steady trading activity. With the U.S. market in a stronger position than at the same time last year, price stability seems set to continue. Although caution still dominates the market, for attentive and forward-looking buyers this could represent a period of quiet but interesting opportunities”, analyzes Liv-Ex.
“The current outlook for the fine wine market is far from straightforward. On average, the leading fine wine indices have stabilized. However, within the Fine Wine 1000 index, more vintages declined in value during the second quarter than increased. Nevertheless, the average gains of wines which rose in value (+5.2%) exceeded the average losses of those that fell (-4.1%). Although the second quarter of 2026 was more active than the same period in 2025, which was heavily affected by tariff-related issues, the overall stability in prices has not yet translated into a sufficient increase in confidence (and demand) to drive growth in overall trading volumes”, underlines the Liv-Ex report. “As usual, “Bordeaux En Primeur” dominated the second quarter, although it now represents a far less significant source of revenue than in the past. Among the UK members surveyed by Liv-Ex, sales values were broadly unchanged compared with the 2024 “En Primeur” campaign. As fine wine merchants continue to adopt an extremely cautious approach and, in general, avoid buying for stock, private collectors once again remain the primary force shaping market performance. As a result, any factor that raises concerns about the future of collectors wealth has a direct negative impact on the market. With the peace agreement relating to the war in Iran still appearing fragile at the time of writing, it is plausible that inflationary pressures could begin to rise again. This creates an additional layer of uncertainty for collectors evaluating new purchasing opportunities”, explains the British platform further.
Liv-Ex also highlights some interesting geographical dynamics: “U.S. buyers accounted for 26.9% of the total value of purchases in the second quarter, up from 23.3% in the first quarter and well above the 2025 average of 20.7%. Other regions, by contrast, saw a decline in purchasing activity during the quarter. The United States therefore stands out as the only geographical area where buying activity increased during 2026. As previously anticipated, this development was foreseeable, as participants across the U.S. supply chain are gradually adapting to tariffs and available inventories are naturally decreasing. While the increase in total trading value is a positive sign, it is important to emphasize the role U.S. buyers are playing in supporting prices. In the second quarter, for wines included in the Fine Wine 1000 index, American buyers paid on average 1.1% above market price, compared with just 0.03% in the first quarter. If U.S. purchases continue to grow during the second half of the year and the prices paid remain at or above market levels, it is reasonable to expect a further strengthening of price stability. Asian buyers, on the other hand, have played a more marginal role throughout 2026. Although global prices have stabilized, actual transaction prices in local markets have continued to weaken, partly due to significant volumes of privately negotiated sales at lower prices. In addition, following the outbreak of the war in Iran, shipping costs in some cases increased by as much as 60%, directly affecting purchasing willingness”.
A trend which continues to emerge, and which Liv-ex believes is likely to persist, is the growing differentiation between vintages. Bordeaux provides a clear example. “With the exception of the young 2022 vintages, Bordeaux wines produced before 2017 have generally shown greater resilience and reached their pricing floor earlier. Looking at the recent Bordeaux En Primeur campaign, the most successful releases shared two key characteristics: the release price of the 2025 vintage was lower than the current market price of all previous vintages of comparable quality; and earlier vintages of similar quality had by then reached stable or rising price levels. The first condition is essential for the success of any new release in the fine wine market. The second is more dependent on market conditions (and didn’t occur during the 2024 campaign). Together, these two factors provide the strongest likelihood that a new wine will retain its value over time. In summary, rising prices for more mature vintages not only offer profit opportunities for their owners but also help support the valuations of newer vintages. Château Lafite Rothschild, one of the standout successes of the 2025 campaign, provides a significant example: all of its top vintages produced since 2014 have recorded gradual price increases since the beginning of the year”, concludes Liv-Ex.